March 2026 | Updated July 24, 2026
JULY 24 UPDATE: A lot has happened in the five weeks since our last update. The short version: the June 17 peace deal collapsed, U.S.-Iran fighting has escalated into what looks like sustained warfare, and Section 122 tariffs expired at midnight last night, but a Section 301 replacement kicked in the same morning. Here is the sequence. On July 7, Iran attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. On July 8, President Trump declared the Islamabad MOU “over.” Between July 10 and July 16, both sides traded strikes, and Iran suspended interim commitments. On July 17, Trump reinstated the naval blockade of Iranian ports and announced the U.S. would “take over” the Strait of Hormuz and charge 20% on cargo for security. Iran declared the strait “completely closed.” As of this writing, we are in the twelfth consecutive night of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets. Qatar and Pakistan are attempting mediation. Hormuz shipping traffic has effectively collapsed: just 1 vessel crossed the strait on July 23, down from a pre-war baseline of 90+ daily. Brent crude spiked from $68 at the start of July to nearly $100 on July 22, easing back to the mid-$90s. On the tariff front, Section 122 (the 10% global surcharge) expired by statute at 12:01 AM EDT today, but USTR imposed Section 301 forced-labor tariffs (10-12.5%) on about 60 trading partners at the same moment, so the net change for most fabricators is roughly neutral. Steel and aluminum remain under the unchanged 50% Section 232 duties. Meanwhile, U.S. HRC has actually kept climbing: Nucor is now at $1,135/ton (up $5 from July 6), and the CRU Midwest index is at multi-year highs. LME aluminum is back up to ~$3,205/tonne on Gulf supply concerns. June ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.3 (still expansion) with the Prices Index dropping 9.1 points to 73.0, the biggest single-month decline in nearly four years, though that easing was captured before the current escalation. This is the most complex operating environment we have covered since March. Below, we’ve refreshed the full brief.
JUNE 19 UPDATE: The conflict has reached a turning point. On the evening of Wednesday, June 17, President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, extending the ceasefire by 60 days and committing to a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran agreed to gradually reopen the strait, retain (but not export) its enriched uranium stockpile, and continue nuclear negotiations. In exchange, the U.S. lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports and is mobilizing a $300 billion regional reconstruction fund. Markets responded immediately: Brent crude fell to roughly $80/barrel, down from $115 in early May. That’s a $35/barrel collapse in six weeks. Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 Brent forecast to $80 and 2027 average to $75. LME aluminum dropped to around $3,400/tonne (from the April peak of $3,685), and the May ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.0, its highest reading since May 2022, with the Prices Index easing slightly to 82.1 from April’s 84.6 (still extremely elevated). The bottom line for fabricators: the worst-case scenario has been averted, but normalization will take months, not days. Shipping analysts estimate 10–15 days minimum to clear the vessel backlog, with full Hormuz traffic recovery measured in weeks-to-months. EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter is still on a 12-month repair timeline. Nucor pushed HRC to $1,125/ton in mid-June. Steel kept climbing right through the peace announcement. And Iran’s push for a Hormuz toll system, while not in the final MOU, remains a structural risk that could permanently elevate shipping costs. We’re moving from “active crisis” to “complex unwind,” and that’s a different planning environment, but still not a return to 2024 normal.
MAY 1 UPDATE: Two weeks of stalled negotiations and renewed escalation have moved this from “ongoing disruption” to “largest oil supply disruption in history” (the IEA’s words, not ours). Brent crude has surged back to $114.66/barrel as of April 30, fully recovering its earlier ceasefire-driven pullback. The Strait of Hormuz is now in its third month of effective closure, with the Pentagon confirming it could take up to six months to clear the mines Iran has deployed, even after a ceasefire is reached. Roughly 2,000 vessels remain immobilized in the Gulf. President Trump rejected Iran’s April 26 ceasefire proposal, and CENTCOM has prepared strike plans that Trump is being briefed on this week. On the metals front, LME aluminum hit a new April peak of $3,685/tonne on April 24 (up 51% year-over-year), and Nucor pushed HRC to $1,045/ton with no signs of stopping. Q1 GDP came in at 2.0%, a rebound from Q4’s 0.5%, but a major layoff wave is now hitting: GM idled its Detroit Factory ZERO EV plant (1,140 workers), and Meta announced 8,000 cuts. April PMI data drops today. We’ll be watching closely.
APRIL 20 UPDATE: The situation has grown significantly more complex since our last update. A two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 briefly opened the Strait of Hormuz, then collapsed within hours when Iran’s IRGC reclosed it following Israeli attacks on Lebanon. The U.S. began enforcing a full naval blockade of Iranian ports on April 13 and seized an Iranian cargo vessel on April 19, with Iran vowing retaliation. EGA confirmed its Al Taweelah smelter will take up to 12 months to fully restore. LME aluminum hit $3,670/tonne on April 16 (a new three-year high) before settling around $3,534. Nucor HRC climbed to $1,045/ton. And the March CPI report confirmed what manufacturers already knew: headline inflation surged to 3.3%, driven by the largest single-month gasoline price increase on record.
APRIL 3 UPDATE: Since we first published this brief, several major developments had accelerated the trends outlined below. Iran launched direct strikes on Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) on March 28–29, damaging two of the world’s largest smelters and sending LME aluminum briefly to $3,492/tonne, a four-year high. Nucor pushed U.S. hot-rolled coil above $1,025/short ton (up from $950 in January), and the April 1 ISM Manufacturing report showed the Prices Index surging to 78.3, its highest reading since June 2022, with ISM citing steel, aluminum, tariffs, and petroleum-based products as the primary drivers.
July 2026 – Twenty-two weeks after the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran began, the peace that markets briefly welcomed in mid-June has broken down completely. The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding signed June 17 collapsed on July 7 when Iran attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. By July 17, Trump had reinstated the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and declared U.S. control of the Strait of Hormuz, with a 20% cargo levy for security. Twelve consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes have followed. Hormuz shipping traffic has collapsed to a trickle, and Brent crude briefly touched $100 per barrel on July 22 before easing to the mid-$90s. On the tariff side, Section 122 (the 10% global surcharge) expired at 12:01 AM EDT today, but USTR simultaneously imposed 10-12.5% Section 301 forced-labor tariffs on roughly 60 trading partners, leaving the net duty picture largely unchanged. Steel and aluminum remain under the 50% Section 232 duties. Domestic HRC has kept climbing to multi-year highs, and LME aluminum has reversed its June-July easing on renewed Gulf supply concerns. But the June ISM Manufacturing PMI captured genuine input-cost easing before the escalation, which is a data point worth remembering as the next few weeks unfold. For precision sheet metal fabricators and the OEMs we serve, this is the most complex operating environment we have covered since this brief was first published in March. Below, we refresh the full picture and the proactive steps Atlas is taking to help our customers work through it.
MATERIAL COSTS: STEEL BACK TO CLIMBING, ALUMINUM REVERSES ITS EASING
The two-week Nucor pause we flagged on July 10 has ended. Nucor moved HRC to $1,135/ton on July 20, SMU price ranges have risen to multi-year highs, and LME aluminum has reversed its June-July easing on renewed Gulf supply concerns. Both metals are moving against fabricators again, driven by the renewed conflict and by the tariff picture that turned out to be a shell game rather than a genuine expiration.
- Steel is climbing again after a two-week pause. Nucor moved HRC to $1,135/ton on July 20, and SMU reports sheet prices at multi-year highs. Broader U.S. HRC rose 6.1% between June 19 and July 17 to $1,286.9/ton ex-works, with July average offers at $1,252/ton versus $1,212.5/ton in June (SteelPrices/OilMonster). The mid-July pause was resistance, not a top. Underlying drivers remain: 50% Section 232 duties keep imports non-competitive, capacity discipline holds, and the renewed conflict has removed any near-term deflation catalyst.
- LME aluminum has bounced back to ~$3,205/tonne as of July 22 (AlCircle), up from ~$3,130 on July 7. SunSirs reports aluminum “stopped falling and rebounded in July”, and Aegis Hedging notes the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is directly impacting global aluminum supply. EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter remains on a 12-month repair timeline and Alba’s 19% production cut has not been lifted. The Midwest Premium under 50% Section 232 tariffs continues at record levels. The June-July aluminum window has closed for now.
- Section 122 expired but was immediately replaced. At 12:01 AM EDT on July 24, the 10% Section 122 baseline surcharge lapsed by operation of law, 150 days after taking effect on February 24. However, USTR simultaneously issued final Section 301 duties of 10-12.5% on approximately 60 trading partners, framed as a forced-labor remedy. Many products are exempted (oil and gas, fertilizer, certain foodstuffs, aircraft parts, critical minerals), and Section 232 goods (steel, aluminum, copper, autos) are also excluded from Section 301 stacking. For most fabricator inputs, the net change on landed costs is close to zero. The one benefit for importers: refund claims from IEEPA-era duties are still working through the Federal Circuit appeal and are worth preserving in your records.
- Structural supply pressures beyond the Gulf keep accumulating. Goodyear announced closure of its Fayetteville, NC plant with 1,750 layoffs on July 16. Samsung Electronics America cut 739 jobs in New Jersey. Layoffhedge tracked 17,075 U.S. layoffs in July alone. At the same time, initial jobless claims fell to 187,000 last week, the lowest reading since 1969. Manufacturing employment has flatlined at 12.6 million since June. The labor market is holding steady in aggregate, but sector-specific pressure is building.
For shops working with steel-heavy programs, absolute cost levels are at or near multi-year highs and the near-term direction is up. Aluminum has rebounded off its recent low and the window that opened on July 10 has largely closed. Section 232 is unchanged. The geopolitical downside case has become the base case.
ENERGY AND SHIPPING: HORMUZ AT A STANDSTILL, OIL RETESTS $100
This section changed the most since our last update. On July 17, President Trump reinstated the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and declared U.S. control of the Strait of Hormuz, announcing a 20% cargo levy on shipping through the strait. Iran responded by declaring Hormuz “completely closed.” Twelve consecutive nights of U.S. strikes have followed. Just one vessel crossed the strait on July 23, the lowest daily transit since May 7. Brent crude, which had touched $68 at the start of July, briefly hit $100 on July 22 and has since eased back to the mid-$90s. Oil supply is no longer priced for surplus.
What this means for fabricators:
- Hormuz shipping has effectively stopped. Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded just 53 vessel transits in the week through July 20, down 66% from 157 the previous week. Tanker and gas carrier movements fell to 30 from 90. MST Marquee estimates flows have dropped to around 15% of pre-war levels. On July 23, just one commercial vessel crossed the strait, and there have been no visible LNG tankers passing through since July 16. Trump’s 20% cargo levy on Hormuz traffic is now the operative shipping cost floor, not the mid-August Iranian toll we flagged in the last update. Marine war-risk premiums are elevated across the board. For Gulf-routed materials, expect weeks or months of disruption, not days.
- Oil has broken back through $90 per barrel. Brent briefly touched $100 on July 22 before easing to the mid-$90s (Bloomberg reported Brent eased back after hitting $100). The move was a 13.5% weekly gain. MST Marquee warned oil could retest $100 or higher if fighting continues at current intensity. The oversupply thesis that held on July 10 has been overwhelmed by shipping-and-supply disruption. Gasoline and diesel relief that was expected by August is off the table for now. Refined-product pass-through to fabricator-relevant categories (freight, packaging, coatings) is beginning to arrive.
- The June ISM Prices Index dropped 9.1 points to 73.0, the biggest single-month decline since July 2022. ISM’s June Manufacturing PMI report, released July 1, showed manufacturing expansion continuing (PMI 53.3) with input-cost pressure receding for the first time in months. That easing was real, but the July report (August 1) will capture the current escalation. Expect the Prices Index to give back most of the decline. Regional July surveys are already showing the shift: the Kansas City Fed Composite Index eased to 9 from 11 in July, missing the consensus of 13. Philly Fed manufacturing rose more sharply.
- Petrochemical feedstocks and coatings are re-entering pressure territory. Downstream coating suppliers, packaging vendors, and specialty chemical partners who worked through peak-2026 inventory positions in June and early July are now facing input-cost pressure again. Coordinate with your finishing and packaging partners on updated timing and pricing.
THE DEMAND PICTURE: EXPANSION HOLDS, LABOR MARKET SPLIT
The June 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.3, still in expansion for a sixth consecutive month with fourteen of eighteen industries growing. The Prices Index fell 9.1 points to 73.0, the largest single-month decline since July 2022. That easing was captured before the current escalation, so expect the July report to give some of it back when it releases August 1. Regional July surveys already show the mix: the Kansas City Fed Composite eased to 9 from 11 (missing consensus of 13), while Philly Fed manufacturing rose more sharply than expected. International: the Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI hit a 52-month high on output, and Japan’s Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.7, both signaling that global manufacturing has held up. On the U.S. labor side, the split is sharp: initial jobless claims fell to 187,000 last week, the lowest since 1969, while Layoffhedge tracked 17,075 layoffs in July across manufacturing, retail, and tech. Aggregate labor is holding; sector concentration is intensifying.
How the demand picture is looking now:
Where the picture is improving:
- Data collected before the escalation showed real progress. The June ISM Prices drop of 9.1 points, the June PMI of 53.3, and continued fabricated metal employment growth all reflect genuine underlying easing. The current environment does not erase that. It layers a new pressure on top.
- Global manufacturing has held up. Eurozone output PMI hit a 52-month high, and Japan is well above 50. If the Gulf crisis stays contained to shipping and does not choke off broader demand, U.S. fabricators supplying export-oriented customers still have a favorable macro backdrop.
Still strong and accelerating:
- Aerospace and defense. Twenty-two weeks of active military operations and twelve consecutive nights of U.S. strikes have added materially to defense budgets and backlogs. Shops with defense contracts or AS9100/ITAR capabilities are positioned for sustained growth and, in some categories, priority allocation.
- Data center and grid infrastructure. Demand for enclosures, racks, switchgear cabinets, and thermal management components remains exceptionally strong. This is also where industrial buyers and AI hyperscalers are now actively competing for fabrication capacity and electrical grid capacity.
- Medical and industrial equipment. Essential demand has held throughout the disruption.
Still under pressure:
- Auto and consumer capex sensitive to $95+ oil. With Brent back near $95, the pump-price relief we were tracking on July 10 has evaporated. Restart announcements at idled plants may slip. Structural EV headwinds (consumer hesitancy, charging infrastructure, tariff exposure on Chinese components) remain, now compounded by fresh energy-cost pressure.
- Broadening industrial layoffs. Goodyear’s Fayetteville, NC closure (1,750 jobs), Samsung Electronics America’s 739 New Jersey cuts, plus continued layoffs in tech, appliance, and defense support (17,075 tracked in July) are flowing through to capex-dependent industrial buyers.
- Trailer and freight equipment. Great Dane is selling its company-owned dealerships amid a multi-year freight downturn. Watch related fabrication categories carefully.
COST DYNAMICS AND MARGIN MANAGEMENT
The July 24 environment is genuinely two-sided. The direct cost impact of the renewed conflict is real, and it is worse than the July 10 read. At the same time, most of the underlying trends we’ve tracked since March (Section 232, tariff shell games, mill discipline, aerospace/defense demand strength) have not changed. Fabricators are navigating both:
- The tariff picture is stable now that Section 122 has resolved. Section 122 expired at 12:01 AM EDT today, but Section 301 replaced it at 10-12.5% on ~60 partners the same morning. Section 232 is unchanged. For most fabricator inputs, the landed-cost picture is roughly the same today as it was yesterday. The uncertainty that shaped mill and importer behavior for the past few weeks has now been priced in.
- Existing fixed-price programs quoted at May-June peak are still holding value. Steel is back at multi-year highs, aluminum has reversed the June easing, and Gulf-routed shipping is disrupted. Quotes generated in April at peak material costs are close to today’s market. New quotes need to reflect the fully re-elevated environment.
- Gulf-routed lead times are extended, materially. Hormuz transits fell 66% week-over-week to 53 in the week ending July 20, with just 1 vessel on July 23. Any program depending on Gulf-sourced inputs or transits needs to build in schedule buffer measured in weeks or months, not days. Marine war-risk premiums are elevated across the board. Trump’s 20% cargo levy on shipping through the strait is the new floor.
- Steel pricing has structural support that survives the current environment. Section 232 at 50% remains. The Nucor pause turned out to be resistance. SMU reports sheet prices at multi-year highs. Absent a rapid ceasefire and a significant demand reset, we do not see the domestic HRC pattern rolling over in the near term.
- Program-by-program allocation matters more than macro calls. Aerospace and defense demand is at record levels. Data center and grid infrastructure demand is exceptional. Auto and consumer capex is soft. In this environment, capacity choices, forward positioning, and DFM engineering deliver more value than trying to time a spot cycle.
HOW ATLAS IS RESPONDING: HOLDING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS OPEN
The July 24 environment asks fabricators to plan through a genuinely more difficult moment than either the March-April spike or the June 19 unwind. Here’s what Atlas is doing now:
- Prioritizing continuity for defense, aerospace, data center, and infrastructure programs. These categories are running hot, and our capacity commitments to them are firm. Customers with programs in these lanes will continue to see the reliable execution they saw through the March-June peak.
- Recalibrating forward material strategies for the re-elevated environment. The window that opened briefly in early July on aluminum has largely closed. Steel is back to climbing. Our approach now is program-specific: forward positioning where the demand visibility supports it, spot flexibility where uncertainty is highest, and DFM engineering everywhere.
- Actively refreshing quotes and program structures. Quotes generated in mid-July at the temporary easing lows need to be revisited. We are engaging customers proactively on programs that require updated pricing or timing given the new environment.
- Design-for-cost engineering across active programs. Material substitution, nesting optimization, part consolidation, and finishing selection continue to deliver measurable value. Our DFM team is engaged across active projects.
- Monitoring geopolitics and policy daily. With twelve straight nights of strikes and active mediation attempts in play, the situation can change on hours-not-weeks timescales. We are tracking Hormuz shipping data, mill posting behavior, tariff developments, and mediator outreach so customers do not have to.
- Transparent communication. As the situation evolves, we’ll continue publishing updates when there’s real news to share, and refraining when there isn’t. That’s the same disciplined approach we’ve taken since this brief was first published in March.
LOOKING FORWARD
Twenty-two weeks in, this brief has now covered the initial shock, four months of escalation, a peace deal, its collapse, and now a full-scale return to active conflict. The through-line is that the manufacturing cost environment has structural characteristics that no single event resolves in either direction. The June 17 MOU did not end the disruption. Its collapse has not undone the real underlying easing that was captured in June data. What we have is a market operating with elevated absolute cost levels, active geopolitical risk, and disciplined domestic mill pricing, all at once.
The near-term picture has three anchor points. August 1 brings the July ISM PMI, the first data point that captures the current escalation. Mid-August is when any Qatar-and-Pakistan mediation efforts would need to show meaningful progress to prevent further hardening on both sides. And Q3 earnings season in October will reveal how automotive, appliance, and consumer-capex customers absorbed the July escalation. Between now and then, Section 232 stays at 50%, Section 301 replaces Section 122 with roughly neutral cost effect, EGA’s smelter continues its 12-month repair, marine war-risk premiums stay elevated, and Trump’s 20% Hormuz cargo levy is the new operative floor for Gulf-routed shipping.
For manufacturers, the right posture is disciplined execution paired with active risk management. Absolute cost levels are elevated and near-term direction is up. Defense and infrastructure demand remains strong. Auto and consumer capex categories are softer and more sensitive to oil pass-through. The proactive supply chain discipline that protected programs through the March-June peak is the same discipline that navigates this environment. Continuity, capacity commitments, and forward planning matter more today than they did on July 10.
At Atlas Manufacturing, we’ve navigated through tariff cycles, supply chain shocks, and now an active geopolitical conflict. What we’ve learned through each of these is that the most valuable thing a fabrication partner can offer in volatile markets is stability paired with situational awareness. That’s what we’ve worked to deliver throughout this episode, and it’s what we’ll continue to deliver as the post-conflict environment takes shape.
Our focus is unchanged: maintain continuity for our customers.
That means:
- Prioritizing continuity for defense, aerospace, data center, and infrastructure customers whose demand is strongest
- Refreshing quotes and program structures to reflect the re-elevated environment
- Coordinating early with customers on programs that depend on Gulf-routed materials or Hormuz shipping lanes
- Continuing design-for-cost engineering work that pays dividends in any market
- Maintaining reliable production schedules through the current environment, just as we did through the March-June peak
While the market environment is changing again, our commitment to execution, transparency, and partnership remains unchanged.
If you’re evaluating upcoming programs, recalibrating cost models, or planning production in this rapidly shifting environment, our team is here to support you. Whether it’s forward material strategies, design optimization, or schedule planning, we’ll work with you through the current environment with the same disciplined execution we’ve delivered since this began.
Contact Nawal Whig at Atlas for expert support with material strategy and project planning.
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- Beancount.io – “Section 122 Import Surcharge Expires July 24, 2026: Small Importers Guide” (July 19, 2026)
- GilDispatch – “2026 U.S. Tariff Schedule: How Current Tariffs Are Structured” (July 2026)
- Ahram Online – “Trump says U.S. reinstates Iran blockade, will be paid for guarding Hormuz” (July 18, 2026)
- CNBC – “Strait of Hormuz traffic: renewed U.S.-Iran conflict chokes Hormuz” (July 21, 2026)
- CNBC – “Oil tankers face worst-case scenario in Hormuz as Iran steps up attacks on ships” (July 17, 2026)
- Lloyd’s List Intelligence – “Strait of Hormuz Brief — 21 July 2026” — 53 transits week ending July 20 (July 21, 2026)
- Iran International – “Only one vessel transited Hormuz on July 23 as U.S.-Iran war chokes off shipping” (July 24, 2026)
- Reuters – “Few tankers enter Hormuz to load oil, data shows” (July 19, 2026)
- Markets.com – “Brent Crude Holds Near $100 as Red Sea Supply Risks Escalate” (July 23, 2026)
- Bloomberg – “Brent Oil Eases Back After Hitting $100 as Trump Renews Blockade” (July 23, 2026)
- Economic Times – “Oil Price Today (July 24): Crude oil dips below $100 but up 13% this week” (July 24, 2026)
- Fortune – “Trump may have to choose between an endless quagmire and ceding the Strait of Hormuz to Iran” (July 18, 2026)
- Steel Market Update – “Nucor holds spot HR price at $1,135/ton” (July 20, 2026)
- Steel Market Update – “SMU Price Ranges: Sheet prices rise to multiyear highs” (July 21, 2026)
- SteelPrices / OilMonster – “Global HRC market: U.S. HRC up 6.1% June 19 to July 17 to $1,286.9/t” (July 21, 2026)
- AlCircle – “LME Aluminium cash offer price rises 0.68% to $3,205/t on July 22” (July 22, 2026)
- Aegis Hedging – “Continuing U.S.-Iran Conflict Impacting Global Aluminum Supply” (July 22, 2026)
- SunSirs – “Aluminum prices stopped falling and rebounded in July 2026” (July 2026)
- CNN – “U.S. initial jobless claims fall to 187,000, lowest since 1969” (July 23, 2026)
- ConnectMoney / Evening Brief – “Jobless claims slide to post-1969 low as regional manufacturing shows mixed signals” — Kansas City Fed 9, Philly Fed rise (July 23, 2026)
- S&P Global / PMI – “Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI at 52.0, 52-month high on output” (July 24, 2026)
- au Jibun Bank / PMI – “au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI at 54.7” (July 24, 2026)
- Fidelity / Reuters – “Goodyear to close North Carolina plant, cut 1,750 jobs” (July 21, 2026)
- Layoffhedge – “July 2026 Layoffs Tracker — 17,075 layoffs across sectors” (July 24, 2026)
Posted in: Atlas Market Brief